Canada Express Entry CRS score will drop further
If you’re in the Express Entry pool, you probably are keeping a close eye on recent Express Entry draws and the CRS score required to get an Invitation to Apply (ITA) for Canadian permanent residence. In 2018 so far, the lowest CRS score required to receive an ITA has been 441 points. Now the question on everyone’s mind is: will the CRS score drop lower in 2018? We’ve taken a look at the facts and figures to come up with an answer.
WHAT IS THE CRS SCORE?
Most of Canada’s economic immigrants are processed through an immigration system called Express Entry, which operates three immigration programs: Federal Skilled Worker (FSW), Federal Skilled Trades (FST), and Canadian Experience Class (CEC). In order to be considered for any of these programs, first, a candidate must create an Express Entry profile, which includes information about their age, education, work experience, language proficiency, and family members. Creating an Express Entry profile acts as an Expression of Interest (EOI) for the immigration program.
Based on the information included in a candidate’s Express Entry profile, the person is assigned a score out of 1200 points. This score is the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score and is used to rank every person in the Express Entry pool of candidates. Approximately every two weeks Canadian immigration officials conduct an Express Entry draw, where they issued a round of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) to the candidates in the pool who have the highest CRS score. An ITA is like a golden ticket for Canadian immigration, allowing its holder to submit an official application for Canadian permanent residence.
Since ITAs are in such high demand, understanding the CRS score is crucial to understand your chances of successfully immigrating to Canada. In 2018, the minimum CRS score required to receive an ITA has been 441 points, and in the history of Express Entry, the lowest CRS score required has been 413 points.
CAN WE PREDICT THE FUTURE CRS SCORE?
Predicting future CRS scores can be challenging, as the issuance of ITAs is entirely at the discretion of Canadian immigration officials. A number of factors are at play when considering how the CRS score will change:
How much time takes place between draws?
How many new Express Entry profiles are submitted within this time?
How many ITAs are issued in each draw?
Each of these questions is a variable with a significant impact on the way in which the CRS score will change in future draws. We can never be sure about how each of these variables will shift; therefore there is always an element of risk in predicting the CRS score. However, by analyzing current and historical trends in Express Entry draws, we can make a few predictions.
BASED ON THE NUMBERS, WHAT CAN WE PREDICT?
To begin our prediction, let’s first take a look at Canada’s immigration targets for Express Entry. In 2017, Canada aimed to accept 160,000 new permanent residents through economic classes. In 2018, this number was increased to 172,000 new permanent residents. These economic immigrants include those immigrating through Express Entry pathways, as well as Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) and business classes of immigration. It is also important to note that these targets include the principal applicant on economic classes plus any accompanying family members (spouse, common-law partners, and dependent children).
Based on the immigration targets alone, we can expect Express Entry to issue more ITAs in 2018 than in the previous year in order to meet the increased immigration targets. Bearing this in mind, we can compare the total number of ITAs up to this point in 2017 versus 2018.
Comparatively, 2018 has seen more than 10,000 fewer ITAs issued than 2017 during the first four months of the year. Considering that the annual immigration targets indicate that 2018 will see a higher number of economic immigrants than the previous year, it is a reasonable estimate that at some point in 2018, the number of ITAs issued will catch up with, and quite possibly surpass, the number of ITAs issued in 2017.
In the future, as 2018’s ITA levels catch up to that of 2017, it is reasonable to estimate that the minimum CRS score required to receive an ITA would drop. However, remember that there are variables in this situation which we cannot predict. For example, how many new Express Entry profiles will be submitted in 2018? If 2018 sees a significant surge in the number of Express Entry profiles submitted to the pool, this may counteract the increased number of ITAs issued and could cause the CRS score to remain higher.
Unfortunately, it is not possible to predict with 100% accuracy the fluctuations of the CRS score, but for those seeking an optimistic look towards the future – there is a definite, reasonable possibility that the CRS score will drop as 2018 continues.